Cripes
No wonder the public gets upset with pollsters after elections – the ‘forecasters’ are amazing at regurgitating terribly misleading information… Remember in 2016, when ‘all the polls were wrong?’ because the political pundits were reading national polls that said Hillary was going to win… And then the national polls were right (RCP national polling average Clinton +2.1, actual popular vote Clinton +3.2) … but because pundits forgot to inform the public about the Electoral College, or state that national polls are a bit misleading in nature, there was shock and anger with the polls?
What have we learned? Nothing it seems…
Oh Geez
RealClear, you seem to be the ‘go-to source’ for a majority of political pundits and journalists, but yet still have 6 Senate races listed as ‘tossup’…?
What are the folks at RCP seeing with their own data that I’m missing?
Arizona - not a poll taken this year has Lake ahead… “Tossup”
Ohio is at least close, but still not a poll in the aggregate favors the Republican:
Pennsylvania also fairly close, but still, not one poll all year in your aggregate shows the Republican ahead…Not one:
Ufta
I don’t want to put this all on RCP; lots of folks out there are talking about these close Senate races, like the ‘Tossup’ Michigan:
And Wisconsin:
…Look at that ‘average’, there are 5 polls in the calculated average, with 4 of the 5 having Baldwin up by 5 points or more.
Pundits are still talking about the Nevada race – and RCP didn’t change the rating from ‘tossup’ until two days ago… what am I missing? Three of the four polls in the calculated average have Rosen up by double digits, and the other has her up by 8…
Ope
We forgot to talk about the races that are actually close. Like Montana, which has FAR fewer polls conducted there this year, and has the same aggregate margins of the much more studied Wisconsin, BUT was moved to Lean R this week???
RCP literally moved Wisconsin from Lean D to tossup, in the same week that Montana was moved from tossup to Lean GOP, and they have the same aggregate spread…
The difference? There hasn’t been a poll conducted in Montana since the Republican (Trump) pollster Fabrizo had Sheehy ahead last month (so, move to ‘lean GOP’), and Wisconsin was moved from ‘Leans Dem’ to Tossup when the latest poll was released by CBS last week showing Baldwin up 8??? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills, and I do this for a living. No wonder the American public has no clue what to make of this.
And what about Maryland… WHY IS NOBODY TALKING ABOUT MARYLAND? I get that Larry Hogan is a ‘RINO’ to some in the party, but the spread is only D+5… Alsobrooks is only polling at 47.3%... to put that into perspective, that’s lower than the Democratic candidate in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. And yet this is lean D?
Texas’ aggregate only has three polls in their calculations after July 1st, with two of them showing the race within 4 points. So, naturally, Lean R…?
Hey-Ohhh
Florida (rightfully in my opinion) got moved to ‘tossup’ last week according to RCP, even with super limited data (oddly taking a poll from May into account)… But that may be the one true ‘tossup’ I could get on board with in their maps.
Bottom Line
Republicans will win a seat in West Virginia… and I’m certain the pundits and journalists and aggregators out there have some algorithm they’re using to sound smart when talking about the battlegrounds of the Arizonas and Michigans and Wisconsins, and how the polls are underrepresenting the blonde-haired, college educated, left-footed suburban mom… But by the numbers, there looks to only be like three races that we don't have enough information on and thus should be called true tossups (MD, TX, FL), and they don’t seem to be the ones forecasters are focused on.