White, suburban, college-educated mothers. Second-generation Hispanic males in the Rust Belt. There are many demographics that Donald Trump overperformed this election on his way to victory. The polls, by and large, did a good job of picking up this sentiment.
But pollsters — myself included — modeled likely voter turnout wrong.
We did not model an electorate with both major parties in decline and independents surging to overtake the Democrats. The result was that Trump won decisively while most polls suggested a dead heat.
READ MORE HERE to understand why Bullfinch will continue researching the important-as-ever Independent voter:
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