In the 30 days leading up to Biden dropping out of the race, Trump’s lead skyrocketed nationally from being ahead by 0.9 points on June 22nd to holding a +3.1 lead on July 21st (RealClearPolitics). Trump was “heating up” from a poor Biden debate showing, a failed assassination attempt, and a well-orchestrated RNC. So, what has happened in the last week to see Trump’s lead cut in half?... Republicans got everything they asked for – and therein lies the problem with their strategy.
Failed Strategy 1 – asking for Biden to drop out of the race.
Biden didn’t do well on his first and only debate performance of 2024. But then Republicans, not Democrats, were the ones that came out highlighting Biden’s performance. Hell, Trump’s team released a campaign ad the following day showing 90 seconds of Biden’s confused state during the debate. . . The Republicans didn’t make claims of Biden being a long-standing Washington insider, or showcase the difference between the career politician and businessman – an angle that usually plays well in politics. No. Rather, they played up something Biden can’t ‘correct’ (his age). And then echoed calls for Biden to drop out of the race… The first move I bet they regret.
Silly Strategy 2 – calling for a Democratic primary process
Let’s be very clear – a strong majority of those who would vote in the Democratic primaries are happy with Kamala being the nominee. In last week’s Economist/YouGov survey, they asked if ‘Now that Joe Biden has stepped aside as the Democratic nominee for president, would you approve or disapprove of Kamala Harris becoming the nominee?' From which, only 1-in-10 self-identified Democrats ‘disapprove’, whereas roughly two-thirds of Republicans ‘disapprove’… And that disapproval seems to be propelled by the Republicans suggesting that Democrats need a primary process where they have a say in their nominee. Which is super confusing.
First, why do Republicans all of a sudden care about the wellbeing of Democratic voters? Second, if there was some kind of voting process in which Democrats come together and all vote for Harris, how does that help Republicans??? Democratic voters coming together is good for Republicans how? Why the hell would Republicans be pushing for this? The only reason is to muddy the water, but the outcome would be devastating for Republicans and Trump. To that point…
Goofball Strategy 3 - confusing who’s the victim
“The election was rigged.” “These judges are bias.” “The media is mean to me.” Trump is the most unjustly attacked victim in presidential history – according to him. So then why are the new talking points about making Harris his next ‘victim’.?. You can’t play the sympathy card as the victim, while also being the assailant. It’s bizarre. The Trump ‘victim underdog’ story is being tore apart, by Trump. In his recent speeches, he’s calling her a lunatic, while also claiming he is being unjustly attacked by (insert judge, news organization, DNC, etc.) his opponents. . . That dog won’t hunt.
Wackadoodle Strategy D – calling for Biden to step down
Make no mistake, the people saying that if Biden doesn’t have the capacity to run for president, then he should step down as the current president, are Republicans. What kind of strategy is this? Let’s game this out – if Biden steps down as president, then Harris becomes the first female president in our nation’s history. There would be weeks of worldwide press, and a massive rally ‘round-the-flag effect domestically. She would get free press, and look presidential because SHE’D BE THE PRESIDENT. How then, is this good for Trump or Republicans?
Bottom line: Trump had a great July. He had 30 days or so of great press. Now, it’s Harris and Democrats turn, and come 30 days from now, I’d hazard a guess Republicans will be wishing that they didn’t get everything they asked for.
Contributors:
Brett Loyd, President & CEO of The Bullfinch Group
Dan Schnur, Professor, UC-Berkeley and USC